Discom Electricity Forecasting Tool

  • About the Tool

    Discom Electricity Forecasting Tool (DEFT) is a unique tool in the segment of electricity demand forecasting to assess the future demand profiles of a distribution utility and enable them to foresee the impact of various improvements in end-user profiles through scenario-based predictive techniques. The tool merely entails the historical load profiles (i.e. demand pattern and amplitude) of a utility to assess its future trends. It gives valuable insights on the demand of a utility regarding the impact of changing consumption patterns, policy initiatives, emerging technologies, etc. This also helps in foretelling the impact of impending or anticipated initiatives/ measures/ interventions on the relevant consumer categories.

  • Applications of the Tool

    Applications of the tool of DEFT
    1. » Distribution infrastructure planning: Valuable insights on how the demand for a utility is affected by changing macro-economic parameters and thereby assisting utilities in planning their distribution infrastructure facilities.
    3. » Demand-side management: Aids utility in automating future load research activity, estimation of DSM potential, identification of intelligent DSM interventions and their impact. Implementation strategies for DSM activities can be planned wisely as most of the DSM action plans are implemented at least 2-3 years from submission of the report which will change the impact factors very differently.
    5. » Analysis of changing load at the feeder level: Each feeder can be analysed over medium-term to plan DSM activity from the bottom-up approach .
    7. » Informed Policymaking: Helps in predicting the impact of impending or anticipated initiatives/technologies/policies on future demand behaviour of a utility .
    9. » Impact assessment of new policies of government or utilities on the future load curve.
    11. » Tariff Design and Cost of supply management.
    13. » Open access (3 months to 3 years) planning.
    15. » Power procurement:Planning of additional generation capacities and technologies duly making optimum utilization of available generation sources and short & long term PPAs.
  • Features of the Tool

    Features of DEFT
    1. » System Level Analysis: This enables the utility to analyze the historic utility level demand pattern and its variation which gives insights on behavior of consumers as well as indicate the long term trend, provides deep insight into the historical patterns and provides a basis for future projection of the demand, provides the hourly, monthly and seasonal comparative analysis of demand profile for past years, assist the utility and policymakers in deciding the various tariff aspects such as "Time of the Day" tariff, cost of supply and tariff rationalization, etc.
    3. » The Feeder-wise analysis: This helps utility officials to assess the impact of the electricity demand of consumer categories in the utility level demand profile based on the historical data of a particular year. It provides a comparative analysis of demand profile and its seasonal variation for various consumer categories, an hourly variation of the share of each selected categories in the overall utility demand, assists utility to analyze the load pattern of categories to identify strategic DSM interventions required to manage the overall load of the utility, assist the utility and policymakers in deciding the various tariff aspects such as "Time of the Day" tariff, cost of supply and tariff rationalization, etc.
    5. » Demand forecast: This module enables the user to envisage the hourly, monthly and annual load profile as well as anticipated peak day and lean day load curves for succeeding years, provides throughful insights on events to manage the power procurement through optimum utilization of resources. It provides the macroscopic view to plan future accordingly, enables the utility to assess the hourly demand variation in months, seasons and working & non-working days, assist the utility and policymakers in deciding the impacts of various tariff aspects such as "Time of the Day" tariff, cost of supply and tariff rationalization, etc.
    7. » Development of Scenarios: The scenarios were developed to enable the user to modify the end-use consumption profile of its consumers according to the anticipated changes such as increasing penetration of solar rooftop system, growth of electric vehicles and future energy efficiency. The scenario-based approach enables the user to input and vary the likely future trends and also allows revising the forecast already made.